Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments

This paper analyzes rates of return on financial assets denominated in five major currencies and provides a framework for the determination of optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments. Three models are estimated: a univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, an extended ARCH model using the random coefficient (RC) procedure, and a pure RC model. A comparison of the forecasts of these models with those generated by a random walk model demonstrates that forecasts based on the RC/extended ARCH procedure are superior to those based on the random walk model and those based on direct ARCH estimation. These results could be useful for both international investors for the allocation of their wealth among fixed-income investment securities and central banks for the management of their external reserve assets.     

Struggling with Meaningfulness when Context Shifts: Volunteer Work in a German Refugee Shelter

This article draws on an ethnographic study of volunteer work in a German refugee shelter to explore how individual experiences of meaningfulness are intertwined with shifting discursive and organisational contexts. At the beginning of the so‐called refugee crisis, societal discourses portrayed this volunteer work as extraordinarily meaningful – a state we capture through the metaphor of ‘overflow’. This ‘overflow’ mobilised volunteers and was an important point of reference for framing their work experiences as meaningful. Later, shifting discursive and organisational contexts challenged their framings. Instead of letting go, however, the ‘overflow’ triggered volunteers to reframe their experience in dysfunctional ways in order to sustain their sense of meaningfulness. This paper reveals how shifting societal discourses feed into individual experiences of meaningfulness, shows how individuals may respond to such shifts in problematic ways and theorises the nature of such shifts in drawing on Swidler’s notion of settling contexts.     

Quality standards for used durables: An indirect subsidy?

We construct a theoretical framework to study the impact of quality standards for used durable goods on trade ?ows, pro?ts and consumer welfare. We show that asymmetric quality standards generate trade in used goods from high- to low-standard countries while at the same time reducing trade in new goods. Producers in the exporting country bene?t from this change while consumers lose. In the importing country consumers are better off but domestic industry is hurt. These ?ndings suggest that quality standards on used goods may be a powerful policy tool whose use should be monitored by the WTO.     

Estimating financial distress with a dynamic model: Evidence from family owned enterprises in a small open economy

Employing earnings shortfall as a financial distress indicator, we formulate a dynamic nonlinear model, implementing Wooldridge's conditional maximum likelihood estimator and accounting for potentially endogenous covariates. Likewise, we not only achieve a significant improvement in consistency and classification accuracy over static approaches, but we also manage to understand better the evolution of the financial distress process. In our sample of Greek listed firms the higher the positive performance and the lower the leverage at the initial period the greater the chance that a company enters financial distress further down the road, possibly due to manager–owner overconfidence and debt-imposed discipline by company's creditors.     

Employment,output and political business cycle effects in the Greek non-tradable sector

Starting from a theoretical model with traded and non-traded goods, a long-run labour demand equation is identifed, with employment being proportional to relative output and prices. Using Greek data, the model supports weak exogeneity of relative prices and fiscal expansion with respect to the long-run parameters in the cointegrating space. It also highlights structural rigidities in the functioning of the Greek labour market. Political business cycle and partisan effects are shown to affect the short-run employment decisions.     

Modeling the Australian Dollar–US Dollar Exchange Rate Using Cointegration Techniques

This paper examines the link between the Australian dollar's exchange rate and Australia's terms of trade. The US$/A$ rate is found to be cointegrated with the terms of trade, and the relationship between the two variables appears to be robust. An estimated error-correction model for changes in the nominal US$/A$ is shown to have reasonable out-of-sample predictive powers. Weak exogeneity tests within the Johansen framework indicate highly significant causality running from the terms of trade to the exchange rate but less significant causality running from the exchange rate to the terms of trade.     

Multilateral tariff cooperation under fairness and reciprocity

Abstract This paper explores the impact of fairness and reciprocity on multilateral tariff cooperation. Reciprocal countries reward kind behaviour (positive reciprocity), but retaliate against countries behaving unkindly (negative reciprocity). We demonstrate that reciprocal countries that are moderately demanding from their trading partners regarding their commercial policy can support a greater degree of cooperation than self‐interested ones. However, when only very liberal import policies are considered fair, then reciprocity could have a detrimental effect on multilateral tariff cooperation.Thus, our model provides a novel perspective on the role of expectations in trade negotiations.